The recent announcement from President Donald Trump on his Truth Social platform has set the stage for a potential U.S. bitcoin (BTC) reserve. However, market sentiment suggests a level of skepticism regarding the realization of this initiative within the initial 100 days of his presidency.
Current Market Predictions
As of the latest updates, traders on Polymarket are estimating a mere 23% likelihood that a strategic BTC reserve will materialize by April 30, 2025, marking the end of the first 100 days of Trump’s presidency. This estimation indicates a cautious outlook among investors and traders alike.
Specific Conditions for the Reserve
The contractual rules stipulate that for the U.S. government’s potential bitcoin reserve to be recognized, it must specifically hold bitcoin—acquired through legal means, not confiscation—by 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2025. It is crucial to note that mere announcements regarding the establishment of a reserve will not suffice; tangible holdings in BTC are required.
Initial Reactions to Trump’s Announcement
Following Trump’s announcement, the probability of establishing a BTC reserve surged from 11% to 23%. In contrast, another contract concerning the potential creation of a reserve by the end of 2025 shows a more optimistic 65% chance of a positive outcome.
Clarifications and Market Shifts
Initially, Trump’s post mentioned only XRP and SOL as components of the reserve, which led to a spike in their values. However, this was later clarified to include BTC and ETH as well, signifying a broader approach to the digital asset reserve.
Key Players in the Trading Landscape
Among the notable traders in the 100-day crypto reserve contract is Theo5, who has reportedly made significant profits from this venture. This trader seems linked to a French individual who has created multiple accounts, including Theo4, to strategically bet on Trump’s success in the upcoming November 2024 election. Currently, Theo5 boasts a profit of $40,000 on a ‘no’ position regarding the reserve.
Conversely, Polywog, another trader, faced substantial losses amounting to $73,000 on a ‘yes’ position concerning the reserve. They also incurred losses exceeding $560,000 by misjudging the outcome of the 2025 election.
Conclusion
The prospect of a U.S. bitcoin reserve within the first 100 days of Trump’s presidency continues to spark debate among traders, with opinions divided on the feasibility and implications of such a move. As the market evolves, the coming months will be crucial in determining the future of cryptocurrency in U.S. economic policy.
