By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The cryptocurrency market is continuing its downward trend, reflecting investor concerns over President Donald Trump’s impending tariffs and the anticipated release of crucial macroeconomic data later today.
Market Overview: Altcoins Struggle While Bitcoin Holds Steady
Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a 2.5% decline in the past 24 hours, a relatively moderate dip compared to the nearly 6% drop in Ethereum (ETH), a 5.5% decrease in XRP, and a staggering 7% fall in Dogecoin (DOGE). The overall CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) has also dropped by 4.65%. In stark contrast, gold has reached new highs, indicating a flight to safety among investors.
Investors are increasingly turning to gold, which has positively impacted tokens backed by the precious metal. According to CoinDesk Data’s latest stablecoin report, these tokens have seen their market capitalization rise to $1.4 billion in March.
Risk Management: Traders Eye Economic Data
Traders are keenly aware of the forthcoming U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) report, which could significantly influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and risk appetite in the market. As a result, many are reducing their risk exposure ahead of this key economic data release.
Adding to the intrigue, Bitcoin traders are anticipating the expiration of a record-breaking $12.2 billion in BTC options on Deribit today, with a max pain point set at $85,000. However, implied volatility remains low, suggesting that this expiry is unlikely to cause significant market movement, according to Wintermute OTC trader Jake O.
“Recent expirations have not consistently moved the markets, largely due to the relatively small open interest in BTC options compared to spot activity,” Jake O. stated in an email. “That $12 billion is overshadowed by the $28 billion in spot volume traded in the last 24 hours.”
ETF Trends: Contrasting Inflows and Outflows
As the trend of reducing risk continues, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen consistent inflows since mid-March, accumulating nearly $1 billion over the past two weeks. In contrast, spot Ether ETFs have experienced persistent outflows, with approximately $115 million exiting these funds during the same timeframe.
Looking ahead, it is likely that money managers will continue to lower their risk exposure. This trend has prompted Goldman Sachs to raise its gold price target for the year to $3,300 per troy ounce, with the potential to reach $4,500 in an extreme scenario.
What to Watch: Upcoming Economic Data and Token Events
Crypto Highlights:
– April 1: Metaplanet (3350) 10-for-1 stock split becomes effective.
Macro Events:
– March 28, 8:00 a.m.: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases February unemployment rate data (Estimated: 6.8% vs. Previous: 6.5%).
– March 28, 8:00 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases February unemployment rate data (Estimated: 2.6% vs. Previous: 2.7%).
– March 28, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases January GDP data (Estimated MoM: 0.3% vs. Previous: 0.2%).
– March 28, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases February consumer income and expenditure data (Core PCE Price Index MoM Estimated: 0.3% vs. Previous: 0.3%).
Token Events: Governance and Unlocks
Governance Discussions:
– Balancer DAO is considering establishing a Balancer Alliance Program, which would share revenue with key ecosystem partners in the form of USDC as veBAL.
– CoW DAO is looking to update the score definition for buy orders after a Base network incident highlighted issues with solver rewards allocation.
– Arbitrum DAO is voting on converting 15 million ARB into stablecoins for management and allocating 10 million ARB into on-chain strategies aimed at generating yield while safeguarding the principal. Voting concludes on April 3.
Unlock Events:
– March 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.93% of its circulating supply worth $26.47 million.
– April 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $164.98 million.
– April 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 6.05% of its circulating supply worth $15.30 million.
– April 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.77% of its circulating supply worth $15.87 million.
– April 3: Wormhole (W) to unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $128.09 million.
Conferences: Mark Your Calendar
– CoinDesk’s Consensus is set to take place in Toronto from May 14-16, with a 15% discount available using the code DAYBOOK.
– Upcoming events include Solana APEX in Cape Town on March 28, Southeast Asia Blockchain Week in Bangkok on April 2-3, and the Hong Kong Web3 Festival from April 6-9.
Token Trends: Social Media Insights
A selection of tokens is gaining traction on platforms like X, Reddit, and Telegram, according to Santiment data. Notable mentions include:
– Solana (SOL), benefiting from high liquidity and increased interest in Solana-based projects.
– Curve DAO (CRV), which has seen a 30% price rebound and heightened trading activity in the past three weeks.
– COTI, gaining attention following a recent airdrop.
– Walrus (WAL), a new project in the Sui ecosystem, has sparked interest due to trading pair mentions and exchange listings.
Social media chatter often precedes price movements, indicating potential demand or shifting market sentiments.
Derivatives Positioning: Market Movements
Global open interest across all instruments has decreased to $105 billion from $124 billion earlier today, aligning with the broader decline in major digital assets, according to data from Laevitas.
In the past 24 hours, total liquidations reached $362 million, with long positions comprising 83% of this figure. Assets with significant open interest that experienced the steepest percentage declines include Pepe (-14.0%), PNUT (-13.7%), Worldcoin (-12.6%), Avalanche (-11.9%), and BNB (-11.5%). Conversely, Toncoin (+15.5%), Berachain (+9.78%), and ACT (+2.15%) saw increases in open interest.
Market Movements: Current Crypto Prices
– BTC is down 2.34% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $85,266.30 (24hrs: -2.28%).
– ETH has declined 4.77% to $1,911.49 (24hrs: -5.51%).
– The CoinDesk 20 Index is down 4.37% at 2,618.54 (24hrs: -4.55%).
Bitcoin Dominance and Technical Analysis
Bitcoin dominance is currently at 62.04%, indicating a slight increase. The Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio is at 0.02241, showing a decrease of 2.44%. The hashrate continues to average 847 EH/s with a spot hash price of $47.45.
Technical indicators show that Ethereum is struggling to regain momentum, with prices consolidating around levels last seen in November 2023. The price remains below key exponential moving averages, making it challenging for ETH to reclaim former support near $2,110.
Crypto Equities: Market Performance
– MicroStrategy (MSTR): Closed at $324.59 (-1.43%), down to $315.29 in pre-market.
– Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed at $188.58 (-2.77%), down to $186.04.
– Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): Closed at C$17.44 (-3.54%).
– Riot Platforms (RIOT): Closed at $7.77 (-1.65%), down to $7.63.
ETF Flows: Insights
Spot Bitcoin ETFs:
– Daily net flow: $89 million
– Cumulative net flows: $36.42 billion
– Total BTC holdings: ~1,122 million.
Spot Ether ETFs:
– Daily net flow: -$4.2 million
– Cumulative net flows: $2.42 billion
– Total ETH holdings: ~3.423 million.
Overnight Flows: Market Snapshot
Market trends indicate shifting dynamics as traders adapt to evolving conditions. The Bitcoin dominance remains strong, nearing resistance levels, while altcoins face potential downward pressure.
In the Ether: General Market Sentiment
Bitcoin’s dominance is on the rise, nearing a resistance level at 62.3%. Holding steady above major exponential moving averages suggests continued pressure on altcoins, with the potential for further downside if this trend persists.
While You Were Sleeping: Key Highlights
– Dogecoin and XRP suffered 7% declines amid tariff fears impacting markets.
– GameStop priced $1.3 billion in convertible notes, with an initial conversion price of $29.85 per share.
– The UK plans to start authorizing crypto firms by 2026, potentially requiring firms to reapply under stricter regulations.
– Chinese exporters are seeking alternatives to U.S. buyers amid trade tensions.
This week’s developments in the cryptocurrency market reveal a complex interplay of economic factors, risk management strategies, and evolving investor sentiments. As the landscape continues to shift, staying informed will be crucial for navigating these turbulent times.
