By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
As macroeconomic factors continue to influence short-term price fluctuations, Bitcoin (BTC) has stabilized above $80,000. Recent news has added layers of complexity to the market outlook.
Bitcoin Dominance on the Rise
A noticeable “risk-off” sentiment is permeating the cryptocurrency landscape, evidenced by Bitcoin’s growing dominance, which has surged to 62%, nearing a year-to-date high. In contrast, the ether-to-bitcoin (ETH-BTC) ratio has dipped into negative territory over a four-year compound annual basis, indicating that Ether is underperforming relative to Bitcoin.
Trade Wars and Economic Pressures
Concerns surrounding ongoing trade wars initiated by former President Trump contribute to a dampened optimism in the market. These tensions are not limited to Canada but also involve metal tariffs that have triggered retaliatory actions from the European Union.
Canada’s Bond Sale: A Potential Game Changer
In a surprising development, newly appointed Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has initiated a move to sell U.S. dollar bonds. While the details of this sale remain undisclosed, Canada is the sixth-largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, with holdings amounting to $379 billion as of the end of 2024. Should this sale proceed, it could exert upward pressure on yields, countering the current administration’s efforts to lower Treasury rates.
U.S. Debt Landscape and CPI Anticipation
The narrative surrounding Treasury yields is critical, especially as approximately $9 trillion worth of U.S. debt is set to mature or require refinancing in the coming year. This urgency is a driving factor behind the U.S. administration’s push to decrease Treasury yields. Moreover, all eyes are on today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, with risk-asset investors hoping for a cooling inflation reading. The S&P 500 index is hovering near correction territory, down almost 10%. A hotter-than-expected inflation report could lead to further declines in risk assets.
Upcoming Events to Monitor
Crypto Events
- March 12: Hemi (HEMI) mainnet launch, an L2 blockchain operating on both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
- March 15: Athene Network (ATH) mainnet launch.
- March 15: Reploy will close its V1 RAI staking program to new users.
- March 17: CME Group launches Solana (SOL) futures.
- March 18: Zano (ZANO) hard fork network upgrade activating “ETH Signature” support.
- March 20: Pascal hard fork network upgrade on the BNB Smart Chain (BSC) mainnet.
Macro Events
- March 12, 8:00 a.m.: Brazilian inflation data release.
- March 12, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) inflation data release.
- March 12, 9:45 a.m.: Bank of Canada interest rate announcement.
- March 12, 12:00 p.m.: Russia’s inflation data release.
- March 13, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. producer price inflation data release.
Governance and Community Updates
Uniswap DAO is currently discussing the continuation of treasury delegation to ensure governance stability while maintaining active delegate participation. On March 13, both Mantra and Mantle Network will host community calls and AMA sessions to discuss major updates.
Token Unlocks and Listings
- March 12: Aptos (APT) will unlock 1.93% of circulating supply worth $58.26 million.
- March 14: Starknet (STRK) unlocks 2.33% of its circulating supply worth $10.67 million.
- March 31: Binance will delist several tokens including USDT and DAI.
Conferences to Attend
Mark your calendars for key upcoming events in the crypto space, including CoinDesk’s Consensus in Toronto on May 14-16, where you can save 15% on passes using code DAYBOOK.
Market Movements and Statistics
As of the latest updates, BTC is trading at $82,577.14, reflecting a slight decline of 0.55%, while ETH is down 2.6% at $1,892.41. The CoinDesk 20 index has also dipped by 1% to 2,556.70.
Technical Analysis Insights
The dollar index has fallen below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support, which could lead to a swift decline if the U.S. CPI report is softer than expected. A weakening dollar could benefit risk assets like Bitcoin.
Crypto Equities Overview
Notable performances in the crypto equity market include Strategy (MSTR), which closed at $260.59, and Coinbase Global (COIN) at $191.69. Meanwhile, Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) closed at C$17.27.
ETF Flow Trends
The daily net flow for spot BTC ETFs shows a decline of $371 million, while spot ETH ETFs also experienced a drop of $21.6 million. Cumulative net flows for both types remain substantial, indicating ongoing investor interest despite short-term fluctuations.
Closing Thoughts
As the market navigates through these complex dynamics, it remains essential to stay informed and prepared for upcoming reports and events that could significantly impact the crypto landscape.
