By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Risk assets are experiencing a resurgence, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading above the remarkable $87,000 mark. Concurrently, the S&P 500 index has managed to reclaim its 200-day moving average, a significant milestone not achieved since March 10.
However, the excitement in the market is tempered by the impending volatility expected from Friday’s quarterly options expiry, with a staggering over $12 billion in notional value set to expire on Deribit. The max pain price is currently positioned at $85,000, while the majority of open interest is concentrated around $100,000 call options.
Trade Wars and Economic Policies
In the political arena, former President Trump is implementing new trade strategies, introducing “secondary tariffs” that could impose a hefty 25% levy on nations importing oil and gas from Venezuela, as reported by Bloomberg. Trump indicated that while some nations might receive exemptions from these tariffs, additional tariffs affecting autos, lumber, and semiconductor chips are expected to be announced shortly. These actions are part of his broader “America First” economic agenda, which could come into effect as early as April 2.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent continues to endorse tariffs, highlighting their multifaceted role as a strategic tool that can enhance negotiation leverage, generate government revenue, and rebalance trade favorably for the U.S.
Meanwhile, in the U.K., Chancellor Rachel Reeves is preparing for Wednesday’s Spring Statement against a backdrop of rising bond yields that could complicate fiscal planning. Preliminary reports suggest she will advocate for civil service job cuts while ruling out any additional tax increases.
Key Events to Monitor
**Crypto Events:**
– **March 25:** Mimir upgrade goes live on Chromia (CHR) mainnet.
– **March 25, 11:00 p.m.:** Celo (CELO) mainnet’s hard fork network upgrade at block height 31056500 transitions it from an L1 to an Ethereum L2.
– **March 26:** Circle’s stablecoin, USDC, begins trading on Japan-based crypto exchange SBI VC Trade.
– **March 26, 3:00 a.m.:** Cronos (CRO) zkEVM v26 mainnet upgrade introduces Smart Account SSO for simpler logins, paving the way for the ZK Gateway to enhance cross-chain interoperability.
– **March 26, 10:37 a.m.:** Ethereum’s Hoodi testnet activates the Pectra hard fork network upgrade at epoch 2048.
– **March 27:** Walrus (WAL) mainnet goes live.
– **April 1:** Metaplanet (TYO: 3350) 10-for-1 stock split becomes effective.
**Macro Events:**
– **March 26, 3:00 a.m.:** The U.K.’s Office for National Statistics releases consumer price inflation data for February.
– **March 27, 8:30 a.m.:** The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes Q4 GDP data.
– **March 27, 10:00 a.m.:** The U.S. Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing on Paul Atkins’ nomination as chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
– **March 27, 3:00 p.m.:** Mexico’s central bank announces its interest rate decision.
Token Governance and Events
**Governance Votes:**
– Uniswap DAO is considering the recognition of the canonical deployment of Uniswap v2 and v3 on Soneium.
– Floki DAO is voting on the removal of a 0.3% transaction fee on TokenFi smart contracts following a request from a significant partner.
– Sky DAO is deliberating on redirecting the Boost program’s budget to promote USDS on non-Ethereum networks.
**Unlocks and Listings:**
– **March 31:** Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.93% of its circulating supply.
– **March 25:** Particle Network (PARTI) is set to list on major exchanges including Binance and Gate.io.
– **March 27:** Walrus (WAL) to be listed on Gate.io and Bybit.
Market Movements and Derivatives Positioning
As of Monday, Bitcoin is down by 1.12%, trading at $86,889.75, while Ethereum has seen a decline of 1.01%, sitting at $2,064.85. Other market indices like CoinDesk 20 are also down 0.35% at 2,782.83.
CME futures basis for BTC and ETH remains low, indicating a reluctance among institutional investors to deploy capital despite the recent market stability. Additionally, BTC perpetual funding rates have dipped below zero, suggesting a growing preference for bearish positions on offshore exchanges.
Technical Analysis Insights
Bitcoin is approaching a critical trendline that has characterized the sharp price drop from record highs. A successful breach of this trendline could unlock resistance at $100K, setting the stage for potential new record highs. The momentum indicators are showing signs of strength, favoring a breakout above this crucial resistance level.
Crypto Equities Performance
Noteworthy movements in crypto equities include:
– **MicroStrategy (MSTR):** Closed at $335.72, experiencing a +10.43% increase, though down 0.94% in pre-market.
– **Coinbase Global (COIN):** Closed at $203.04, up +6.94%, but down 1.11% in pre-market trading.
– **Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY):** Closed up +7.58% at C$19.30.
Final Thoughts: Overnight Developments
Several significant developments occurred overnight, including BlackRock’s planned listing of a Bitcoin ETP in Europe, marking its first foray into cryptocurrency outside the U.S. Additionally, Binance has suspended an employee over allegations of front-running, although their investigation revealed no evidence of insider trading.
As the market reacts to these developments, traders and investors alike will need to stay vigilant and informed about upcoming events and changes in market dynamics.
