By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin Stabilizes Amid Economic Concerns
Bitcoin (BTC) has shown signs of stability, hovering around its 200-day moving average at approximately $84,000 after experiencing a dip below $77,000 earlier in the week. The recent uptick in the broader market was primarily driven by the popularity of memecoins, layer-2 tokens, and gaming tokens.
However, the path to sustained recovery remains fraught with challenges, particularly as the current administration under President Donald Trump displays an unexpected tolerance for market volatility. Just two months ago, after Trump took office, the crypto landscape was filled with optimism, with many anticipating that any turbulence caused by tariffs would prompt swift policy support from the White House. Unfortunately, that optimism appears to have been misplaced.
Signals of Economic Correction
Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that market corrections are both healthy and normal, suggesting that the anticipated “Trump put” may take longer to materialize than traders had hoped. On NBC News’ “Meet the Press,” Bessent notably did not dismiss the potential for a recession, a stark contrast to the typical government narrative that emphasizes a “glass half full” perspective during challenging times.
This attitude implies that Trump is unlikely to retreat from his tariff policies anytime soon, leaving risk assets, including Bitcoin, feeling uneasy. If stock prices continue to decline, it is hard to envision Bitcoin maintaining its resilience, especially given the absence of positive narratives within the crypto market. Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, commented, “I can’t picture a scenario where risk assets crash and crypto remains unaffected, or where the VIX increases and crypto’s implied volatility doesn’t follow suit.”
Deteriorating Sentiment on Main Street
Additionally, deteriorating sentiment among everyday consumers could contribute to the prevailing risk aversion in both crypto and traditional markets. A chart shared by macro strategist Otavio Costa of Crescat Capital reveals a record number of U.S. consumers anticipating worsening conditions over the next year, highlighting the challenges ahead for risk-sensitive assets.
With a macro focus dominating the market, traders are poised to closely monitor the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting for indications of the central bank’s willingness to implement stimulus measures. Following Chairman Powell’s recent remarks that the Fed is in a wait-and-watch mode to evaluate the impact of Trump’s policies before making any cuts to interest rates, anticipation is high.
Aave’s Initiative Update
In other developments, Stani Kulechov, the founder of Aave Labs, confirmed that the Aave decentralized autonomous organization has reached a consensus against the introduction of a new token for Horizon, an initiative aimed at integrating real-world assets into decentralized finance.
On the geopolitical front, Trump is reportedly set to discuss the ongoing conflict in Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Digital asset prime broker FalconX announced the completion of a “first-ever” block trade in CME’s SOL futures with StoneX as the counterparty.
What to Watch in the Crypto and Macro Landscape
Crypto Events:
– March 17: CME Group launches Solana (SOL) futures.
– March 17: Ethereum (ETH) testnet Hoodi goes live.
– March 18: Zano (ZANO) hard fork network upgrade.
– March 20: Pascal hard fork network upgrade on the BNB Smart Chain (BSC) mainnet.
– March 21, 1:00 p.m.: SEC’s Crypto Task Force hosts a public roundtable focusing on the definition of a security.
– March 24 (before market open): Bitcoin miner CleanSpark (CLSK) joins the S&P SmallCap 600 index.
– March 24, 11:00 a.m.: Bugis network upgrade goes live on Enjin Matrixchain mainnet.
– March 25: Mimir upgrade goes live on Chromia (CHR) mainnet.
Macro Events:
– March 17, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Census Bureau releases February sales data.
– March 18, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases February consumer price index (CPI) data.
– March 19, 2:00 p.m.: Federal Reserve announces interest rate decision.
Token Events and Governance Discussions
Governance votes & calls are active:
– Aave DAO is deliberating the launch of Horizon, a licensed version of the Aave Protocol for institutional access to permissionless stablecoin liquidity.
– Balancer DAO is discussing the deployment of Balancer V3 on OP Mainnet.
Upcoming AMA sessions:
– March 18, 6 a.m.: Toncoin (TON) hosts an AMA on ecosystem expansion.
– March 18, 8 a.m.: Binance’s VP of Product Jeff Li and Binance Angel Victor Balaban will hold an AMA session.
Market Dynamics and Movements
Market Overview:
– BTC is down 0.9% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $83,468.34 (24hrs: -0.23%).
– ETH is down 0.67% at $1,910.26 (24hrs: +0.18%).
– CoinDesk 20 is down 0.76% at 2,625.62 (24hrs: -0.33%).
Technical Trends:
The bitcoin-gold ratio has plunged to levels not seen since early November, indicating a potential shift in performance dynamics. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is trending downwards, which could soon intersect with the 200-day SMA, signaling prolonged gold outperformance relative to Bitcoin.
Crypto Equities and ETF Flows
Key performance of crypto equities:
– Strategy (MSTR): closed at $297.49 (+13%), currently down at $291.80 pre-market.
– Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $183.12 (+3.17%), now at $181.97.
ETF Insights:
– Spot BTC ETFs: Daily net flow of -$59.2 million; cumulative net flows at $35.29 billion.
– Spot ETH ETFs: Daily net flow of -$46.9 million; cumulative net flows at $2.53 billion.
Chart of the Day: Consumer Sentiment
The latest data indicates that a record share of U.S. consumers expect business conditions to worsen, which poses a significant concern for risk-sensitive assets.
In Summary
As we navigate the complexities of the current economic landscape, the interplay between Bitcoin and traditional markets remains a focal point. The influence of memecoins and ongoing developments in the crypto sphere will continue to shape the narrative in the coming days. Stay tuned for updates as we track these pivotal trends.
