By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
The Crypto Market’s Positive Turn
The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a bullish trend as the Federal Reserve’s risk event has passed. Investors are now focusing on several positive factors, including a crypto-friendly administration in the White House, a resurgence in Tether’s market activity, and the traditional bullish sentiment often associated with the Chinese New Year.
Litecoin Takes Center Stage
Among cryptocurrencies with market valuations exceeding $5 billion, Litecoin (LTC) is the star performer. Known as the silver counterpart to Bitcoin’s gold, LTC has surged over 11% since the early trading hours in Asia, outperforming other major cryptocurrencies, which have seen gains between 1% and 3%. Notably, Litecoin has been buoyed by the SEC’s acknowledgment of Canary Capital’s Litecoin ETF proposal, which is now open for public feedback. This acknowledgment may indicate a potential approval in the near future.
Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, remarked on X that this proposal is the first altcoin ETF filing to receive such recognition, highlighting its progress in meeting regulatory requirements. The prospect of a Litecoin ETF could yield benefits similar to those observed in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Despite its recent price rise to $130, LTC remains far from its all-time high of $410 reached in 2021. However, the price chart offers a constructive outlook, which is further detailed in the Technical Analysis section below.
Retail Participation and On-Chain Activity
In other noteworthy developments, on-chain activity data from Glassnode indicates a decrease in retail participation in Bitcoin compared to November. This decline may serve as a positive sign for bulls who are analyzing whether the recent move above $100,000 is sustainable. Additionally, Lombard Finance is gaining traction in the Bitcoin staking sector, capturing a significant portion of the total BTC staked this week.
Ethereum’s active addresses have recently surged to a high not seen since March 2024, suggesting a revival in on-chain activity, according to data from IntoTheBlock. The price of Ether has crossed above $3,200 but has yet to break the bearish trendline connecting the highs from December 16 and January 6.
Traditional Market Insights
Turning to traditional markets, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note has fallen to 4.50%, revisiting Monday’s lows in a bullish shift for risk assets. Optimists in the Bitcoin space are hoping for softer-than-expected U.S. core PCE inflation data to be released later today, which could drive bond yields lower.
In addition to this, we are set to receive the fourth-quarter GDP report along with the weekly jobless claims data. Meanwhile, European gas prices have reached a 15-month high, potentially introducing volatility into risk assets. Investors are advised to stay vigilant.
Upcoming Events to Monitor
Crypto Events:
– **Jan. 31:** Crypto.com will suspend purchases of USDT, WBTC, DAI, PAX, PAXG, PYUSD, CDCETH, CDCSOL, LCRO, and XSGD in the EU as part of MiCA regulations, but withdrawals will remain available through Q1.
– **Feb. 2, 8:00 p.m.:** Core blockchain Athena hard fork network upgrade (v1.0.14).
– **Feb. 4:** Pepecoin (PEPE) halving event will reduce the reward at block 400,000 to 31,250 PEPE.
– **Feb. 5, 3:00 p.m.:** Boba Network’s Holocene hard fork network upgrade for its Ethereum-based layer-2 mainnet.
– **Feb. 5 (after market close):** MicroStrategy (MSTR) Q4 FY 2024 earnings report.
– **Feb. 6, 8:00 a.m.:** Shentu Chain network upgrade (v2.14.0).
– **Feb. 11 (after market close):** Exodus Movement (EXOD) Q4 2024 earnings.
– **Feb. 12 (before market open):** Hut 8 (HUT) Q4 2024 earnings.
– **Feb. 13 (after market close):** Coinbase Global (COIN) Q4 2024 earnings.
– **Feb. 15:** Qtum (QTUM) hard fork network upgrade at block 4,590,000.
– **Feb. 18 (after market close):** Semler Scientific (SMLR) Q4 2024 earnings.
– **Feb. 20 (after market close):** Block (XYZ) Q4 2024 earnings.
– **Feb. 26:** MARA Holdings (MARA) Q4 2024 earnings.
– **Feb. 27:** Riot Platforms (RIOT) Q4 2024 earnings.
Macro Events:
– **Jan. 30:** Czech National Bank Governor Aleš Michl will present a plan to adopt Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
– **Jan. 30, 8:15 a.m.:** The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its interest rate decision, followed by a press conference.
– **Jan. 30, 8:30 a.m.:** The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the Q4 Advance GDP report.
Governance Votes and Token Events
Governance Votes:
– Rarible DAO is voting on whether to allow the Rari Foundation to collaborate with Rarible on implementing multichain protocol fee collection.
– CoW DAO is voting on allocating 80 million COW tokens to support liquidity provisioning and treasury growth from 2025 to 2028.
– Synapse DAO will vote on upgrading the SYN token to CX from the Cortex Protocol.
Unlocks:
– **Jan. 31:** Optimism (OP) will unlock 2.32% of its circulating supply worth $46.39 million.
– **Feb. 1:** Sui (SUI) will unlock approximately 2.13% of its circulating supply worth $261.91 million.
– **Feb. 2:** Ethena (ENA) will unlock about 1.34% of its circulating supply worth $29.53 million.
Token Listings:
– **Jan. 30:** Pepe (PEPE) will be listed on Bitflyer.
Conferences and Networking Opportunities
Crypto Conferences:
– Day 2 of 3: Crypto Peaks 2025 (Palisades, California).
– **Jan. 30, 12:30 p.m. to 5:00 p.m.:** International DeFi Day 2025 (online).
– Day 1 of 2: Ethereum Zurich 2025.
– Day 1 of 2: Plan B Forum (San Salvador, El Salvador).
– Day 1 of 3: Crypto Gathering 2025 (Miami Beach, Florida).
– Day 1 of 3: CryptoXR 2025 (Auxerre, France).
– Day 1 of 4: Oasis Onchain 2025 (Nassau, Bahamas).
– Day 1 of 6: The Satoshi Roundtable (Dubai).
– **Feb. 3:** Digital Assets Forum (London).
– **Feb. 5-6:** 14th Global Blockchain Congress (Dubai).
– **Feb. 6:** Ondo Summit 2025 (New York).
– **Feb. 7:** Solana APEX (Mexico City).
– **Feb. 13-14:** 4th Edition of NFT Paris.
– **Feb. 18-20:** CoinDesk’s Consensus Hong Kong.
– **Feb. 19:** Sui Connect: Hong Kong.
– **Feb. 23-March 2:** ETHDenver 2025 (Denver, Colorado).
– **Feb. 25:** HederaCon 2025 (Denver).
Emerging Token Trends
By Shaurya Malwa
The JELLY token has recently surged to a market capitalization of $200 million, exemplifying the trend of Web2 startup founders launching their own tokens. Created by Sam Lessin, co-founder of Venmo, the token aims to generate traction for a new video chat application called Jelly.
JELLY integrates into Jelly eSports, featuring Solana Boxes—a loot box game where players can win luxury items using SOL or JELLY tokens. The fees generated from JELLY transactions are allocated dynamically towards burning, staking, liquidity provision incentives, gamification, and team support.
Derivatives Positioning Insights
In the derivatives market, Litecoin’s perpetual futures open interest has seen a significant increase of nearly 20% in just 24 hours, with a positive net cumulative volume delta (CVD) indicating net buying activity. Other cryptocurrencies such as TRX, SUI, and BTC are also experiencing positive net CVD. Furthermore, Bitcoin and Ethereum CME futures premiums have risen, suggesting that traders are seeking bullish exposure.
On Deribit, BTC and ETH calls are trading at a premium compared to puts, reflecting a bullish sentiment among traders. Block flows show a mixed trend, including calendar spreads and short volatility strategies like short straddles.
Market Movements Overview
– **Bitcoin (BTC):** Up 0.86% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday, currently priced at $105,190.06 (+2.46% in the last 24 hours).
– **Ethereum (ETH):** Up 2.63%, trading at $3,134.98 (+2.62% in the last 24 hours).
– **CoinDesk 20 Index:** Up 1.74% to 3,826.50 (+2.41% in the last 24 hours).
– **CESR Composite Staking Rate:** Down 3 basis points to 3.03%.
– **BTC Funding Rate:** Stands at 0.0092% (annualized 10.12%) on Binance.
– **U.S. Dollar Index (DXY):** Unchanged at 107.98.
– **Gold:** Up 0.91% at $2,778.26/oz.
– **Silver:** Up 1.11% at $31.05/oz.
– **Nikkei 225:** Closed +0.25% to 39,513.97.
– **Hang Seng:** Closed +0.14% to 20,225.11.
– **FTSE 100:** Up 0.34% at 8,587.03.
– **Euro Stoxx 50:** Up 0.73% at 5,269.01.
– **DJIA:** Closed -0.31% to 44,713.52.
– **S&P 500:** Closed -0.47% to 6,039.31.
– **Nasdaq:** Closed -0.51% to 19,632.32.
– **S&P/TSX Composite Index:** Closed +0.21% to 25,473.30.
– **S&P 40 Latin America:** Closed unchanged at 2,336.48.
– **U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield:** Down 3 basis points at 4.51%.
– **E-mini S&P 500 Futures:** Up 0.33% at 6,087.50.
– **E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures:** Up 0.49% at 21,627.75.
– **E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures:** Up 0.38% at 45,062.00.
Bitcoin Statistics Snapshot
– **BTC Dominance:** 59.53 (-0.51%).
– **Ethereum to Bitcoin Ratio:** 0.03054 (1.73%).
– **Hashrate (7-day moving average):** 774 EH/s.
– **Hashprice (spot):** $62.2.
– **Total Fees:** 4.82 BTC / $494,506.
– **CME Futures Open Interest:** 170,105 BTC.
– **BTC Priced in Gold:** 38.0 oz.
– **BTC vs. Gold Market Cap:** 10.80%.
Technical Analysis Breakdown
Litecoin (LTC) has recently broken out of a multi-month basing pattern, indicating a renewed bullish momentum. Resistance levels are currently observed at $150 and $300, while support is identified at $86, the swing low from December.
Crypto Equities Performance
– **MicroStrategy (MSTR):** Closed Wednesday at $341.25 (+1.58%), up to $343.86 in pre-market.
– **Coinbase Global (COIN):** Closed at $291.00 (+3.26%), up to $293 in pre-market.
– **Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY):** Closed at C$29.09 (+4.38%).
– **MARA Holdings (MARA):** Closed at $18.42 (+0.88%), up to $18.58 in pre-market.
– **Riot Platforms (RIOT):** Closed at $11.22 (+2.47%), up to $11.39 in pre-market.
– **Core Scientific (CORZ):** Closed at $11.88 (+1.33%), up to $11.88 in pre-market.
– **CleanSpark (CLSK):** Closed at $10.26 (+2.09%), up to $10.37 in pre-market.
– **CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI):** Closed at $11.22 (+1.58%).
– **Semler Scientific (SMLR):** Closed at $52.08 (-0.42%), down to $52 in pre-market.
– **Exodus Movement (EXOD):** Closed at $89.30 (+11.4%), up to $94.55 in pre-market.
ETF Flow Analysis
– **Spot BTC ETFs:**
– Daily Net Flow: $92 million
– Cumulative Net Flows: $39.6 billion
– Total BTC Holdings: Approximately 1.17 million BTC.
– **Spot ETH ETFs:**
– Daily Net Flow: -$4.82 million
– Cumulative Net Flows: $2.66 billion
– Total ETH Holdings: Approximately 3.6 million ETH.
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flow Insights
The latest data reflects significant overnight flows, indicating trends in investor behavior and market dynamics.
Chart of the Day – Spending Trends
The accompanying chart illustrates Bitcoin spending patterns among small and retail investors versus whales. Notably, smaller wallets are currently spending $10.7 million in BTC each hour, representing a 48% decline from the peak spending rate of $20.6 million observed in November.
While You Were Sleeping: Notable Headlines
– **Crypto Consortium T3 Assists Spanish Authorities in Freezing $26.4M Linked to Crime Syndicate:** T3, a collaboration of Tron, Tether, and TRM Labs, played a key role in dismantling a European crime syndicate involved in cryptocurrency laundering.
– **Pudgy Penguins’ Layer 2 Network, Abstract, Faces Liquidity Challenges:** Since its launch on January 27, Abstract has struggled to attract liquidity despite high transaction volumes.
– **Polymarket Remains Doubtful About U.S. Bitcoin Reserve:** Despite assurances from David Sacks, Polymarket assigns only a 16% probability to the likelihood of President Trump establishing a U.S. Bitcoin reserve.
– **Bitcoin Rises Following Fed Meeting and Powell’s Comments:** Bitcoin surged past $105,000 early Thursday, driven by remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that many traders interpreted as supportive of cryptocurrency.
– **Trump Critiques the Federal Reserve:** Following the Fed’s FOMC press conference, President Trump took to Truth Social to criticize Fed Chair Powell for his management of U.S. inflation.
– **France’s Economy Faces Urgent Challenges:** The economy contracted by 0.1% in Q4, amplifying the urgency for Prime Minister François Bayrou to navigate political hurdles and finalize the 2025 budget.
In Summary
The cryptocurrency market is showing positive trends, particularly with Litecoin’s performance following ETF news. Investors are advised to remain attentive to macroeconomic indicators and upcoming events that could influence market dynamics.
