By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Market Overview: Trade Tensions Impacting Global Stocks
As trade tensions escalate globally, Asian and European stock markets continue to experience declines, extending last week’s downturn. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index dropped by 4%, entering correction territory after a fall of over 10% from its record high. Meanwhile, European indices, including the FTSE 100, DAX, and CAC 40, opened lower, mirroring the decline of U.S. stock futures.
The cause of this market unease stems from President Donald Trump’s upcoming announcement on new tariffs, scheduled for April 2, which he has labeled “Liberation Day.” Trump plans to impose levies on countries perceived to have unfair trade practices with the United States. In his own words, “You’d start with all countries, so let’s see what happens,” indicating a broad application of tariffs but leaving room for potential concessions.
Economic Indicators: Inflation and Employment Data on the Horizon
On the last trading day, U.S. equities fell following a surprising increase in core PCE inflation, a key indicator for the Federal Reserve. Market participants are bracing for further volatility, especially with the U.S. jobs report set to be released on Friday. Economists predict the unemployment rate to rise to 4.2%, with nonfarm payrolls expected to decrease to 128,000 from the previous month’s 151,000.
In response to this economic uncertainty, gold prices have surged, exceeding $3,100 per ounce for the first time, reflecting a 1.2% increase on the day and nearly 20% year-to-date. Conversely, Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling, currently trading just above $80,000, down more than 3% for the month and 12% for the quarter, marking its weakest performance since late 2022.
Ether (ETH) Performance: A Significant Decline
The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ether (ETH), is facing even steeper declines, having lost 46% this quarter—the worst performance since 2018. The ether-to-bitcoin ratio has plummeted to 0.02195, the lowest point since May 2020, when Bitcoin traded below $10,000, and Ether was just above $200.
What to Watch: Upcoming Crypto and Macro Events
Crypto Events:
– March 31: Launch of the dKargo (DKA) testnet
– March 31: Launch of the Keeta (KTA) testnet
– March 31: PinLink (PIN) will launch on the Ethereum mainnet
– March 31: Terraform Labs will open the Crypto Loss Claims Portal; claims must be submitted by 11:59 p.m. on April 30
– April 1: Metaplanet (3350) 10-for-1 stock split takes effect
– April 1: ONINO (ONI) mainnet launch
– April 2: XIONMarkets (XION) mainnet launch
– April 5: Alleged birthday of Satoshi Nakamoto
Macro Events:
– April 1, 4:30 a.m.: U.K. March producer price index (PPI) data released
– April 1, 5:00 a.m.: Eurozone March consumer price index (CPI) data released
– April 1, 9:00 a.m.: Brazil March purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data released
– April 1, 9:30 a.m.: Canada March PMI data released
– April 1, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Department of Labor releases February JOLTs report
– April 1, 10:00 a.m.: ISM releases March U.S. manufacturing sector data
– April 2: Implementation of the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs plan
Token Events: Governance Votes and Unlocks
Governance Votes:
– The Arbitrum DAO is voting on converting 15 million ARB into stablecoins to be managed through a split among several partners. Voting ends April 3.
– Sky DAO is discussing increasing the Smart Burn Engine rate after a significant increase in net revenue due to a recent proposal.
– A vote on the burn of 50 million CRO tokens is set to conclude on March 31.
Unlocks:
– April 1: Sui (SUI) will unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $143.15 million
– April 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock 6.05% of its circulating supply worth $12.85 million
– April 2: Ethena (ENA) will unlock 0.77% of its circulating supply worth $14.07 million
– April 3: Wormhole (W) will unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $112.67 million
– April 9: Movement (MOVE) will unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $20.23 million
Token Listings:
– March 31: Kinto (K) will be listed on various exchanges including BingX, Kraken, and others.
– March 31: Binance will delist several tokens including USDT and DAI.
Conferences: Networking and Learning Opportunities
Several upcoming conferences are set to take place, including:
– May 14-16: CoinDesk’s Consensus in Toronto
– April 2-3: Southeast Asia Blockchain Week Main Conference in Bangkok
– April 2-5: ETH Bucharest Conference & Hackathon in Romania
– April 3-6: BitBlockBoom in Dallas
– April 6-9: Hong Kong Web3 Festival
– April 8-10: Paris Blockchain Week
– April 10: Bitcoin Educators Unconference in Nashville
– April 15-16: BUIDL Asia 2025 in Seoul
PumpSwap: A New Leader in the Solana Ecosystem
Token launchpad Pump.fun’s trading platform, PumpSwap, has made a significant impact since its debut on March 20, achieving a cumulative trading volume of $2.6 billion, according to Dune Analytics. It has quickly risen to become the top protocol in the Solana ecosystem, generating $3.29 million in fees over the last 24 hours—outpacing the second-place DEX aggregator, Jupiter.
PumpSwap has attracted 710,000 traders and facilitated over 32.39 million swaps, showcasing its influence within the Solana decentralized exchange ecosystem. However, it faces challenges as activity in the Solana ecosystem slows, particularly following a decrease in memecoin trading frenzy. Data from Artemis indicates a drop in daily active addresses on Solana from a peak of 8.1 million to 4.2 million by March 29.
Market Sentiment: Caution Amid Tariff Uncertainty
The total open interest across all derivatives has decreased to $101.3 billion, signaling a cautious approach from market participants as they prepare for a volatile week ahead. This includes the end of the quarter, anticipated tariff announcements from President Trump, and the upcoming jobs report.
In the past 24 hours, liquidations totaled $229.3 million, with long positions making up 79% of the total. The BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap on Binance shows that the largest liquidation cluster is at $81,200, amounting to $27.5 million, while significant clusters also exist at $83,100 and $83,600.
Market Movements: Crypto Prices Drop
– Bitcoin (BTC) is down 2.98% from Friday, currently priced at $81,535.28 (24hrs: -1.27%)
– Ethereum (ETH) has fallen 4.96% and is priced at $1,792.22 (24hrs: -1.3%)
– The CoinDesk 20 index is down 4.98% at 2,447.78 (24hrs: -3.36%)
Further market indicators include:
– Gold prices up 1.3% at $3,126.50/oz
– Silver prices up 0.95% at $34.97/oz
– Major stock indices, including the DJIA and S&P 500, closed with losses of 1.69% and 1.97%, respectively.
Technical Analysis: Key Support Levels for XRP
XRP is approaching a critical support zone between $1.95 and $2.05, a level that has historically served as a strong demand area. This region coincides with the 2021 all-time high and is supported by the daily 200 exponential moving average. If XRP fails to hold this support level, it could lead to a deeper decline.
Crypto Equities: Market Performance Snapshot
Here’s a quick look at how notable crypto equities performed:
– MicroStrategy (MSTR): Closed at $289.41 (-10.84%), down 3.49% pre-market
– Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed at $173.93 (-7.77%), down 3.2% pre-market
– Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): Closed at C$16.45 (-5.68%)
– Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA): Closed at $12.47 (-8.58%), down 3.69% pre-market
ETF Flows: Tracking Bitcoin and Ethereum
Spot Bitcoin ETFs:
– Daily net flow: -$93.2 million
– Cumulative net flows: $36.33 billion
– Total BTC holdings: ~1,121 million
Spot Ethereum ETFs:
– Daily net flow: $4.7 million
– Cumulative net flows: $2.42 billion
– Total ETH holdings: ~3.409 million
In Conclusion: A Dynamic Week Ahead
As we approach a week filled with significant economic indicators, tariff announcements, and market developments, traders and investors should remain vigilant. The interplay between regulatory changes, market sentiment, and economic data will undoubtedly shape the crypto landscape in the days to come.
