By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin Surges While Tariff Uncertainty Looms
Bitcoin is gaining significant traction, climbing over 2% today to surpass $84,000. The rise is primarily driven by the popularity of memecoins, followed closely by tokens linked to artificial intelligence and gaming sectors. Meanwhile, traditional markets witness gold setting new records, exceeding $3,140, as futures tied to major U.S. equity indices suggest a positive opening.
In a notable development, President Donald Trump has committed to a “very kind” yet resolute stance regarding trading partners, ahead of the anticipated announcement of reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday.
Market Anxiety Over Tariff Threats
Despite Bitcoin’s impressive gains, market flows indicate underlying nervousness likely influenced by the looming tariff situation. An aggressive tariff strategy could heighten inflation expectations, potentially dampening the prices of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Adding to the intrigue, reports suggest that the U.S. Treasury and other federal agencies are set to disclose their cryptocurrency holdings, including Bitcoin, on April 5. This follows a March 11 directive that required such disclosures within 30 days of Trump’s March 6 executive order to establish a strategic crypto reserve.
Caution Signals Emerge in the Crypto Space
However, caution is advised as certain indicators suggest potential volatility. According to crypto research firm Alphractal, Bitcoin’s one-year percentage change is nearing negative territory. Historical data reveals that out of four similar occurrences, three resulted in bearish movements, while one showed no significant impact.
Furthermore, BTC’s demand over a 30-day period, calculated from the flow of coins into exchanges and adjusted for net outflows, is currently showing its most negative values in over a year, according to data from CryptoQuant.
Innovations in the Broader Market
On a positive note, the decentralized AI data liquidity network Vana has introduced the VRC-20 data token standard, aimed at ensuring fair and transparent transactions in data markets. “For data markets to thrive, tokens must be reliable, secure, and useful. The VRC-20 standard delivers this by facilitating equitable data token trading,” Vana stated.
In other news, the MOVE Index, which tracks the 30-day implied volatility for U.S. Treasury notes, is on the rise. A volatile Treasury market often triggers financial tightening globally, leading to decreased demand for risk assets. It’s an important time to stay vigilant!
Upcoming Events to Watch
**Crypto Events:**
– **April 1:** ONINO (ONI) is set to launch its mainnet.
– **April 2, 10:00 a.m.:** U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing regarding various measures, including the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy (STABLE) Act of 2025 and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act.
– **April 2:** XIONMarkets (XION) will also launch its mainnet.
– **April 5:** The alleged birthday of Satoshi Nakamoto.
– **April 9, 10:00 a.m.:** U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing on potential updates to U.S. securities laws concerning digital assets.
**Macro Events:**
– **April 1, 9:00 a.m.:** S&P Global will release Brazil’s March purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.
– **April 1, 9:30 a.m.:** Canada’s March PMI data release.
– **April 1, 9:45 a.m.:** Final U.S. March PMI data release.
– **April 1, 10:00 a.m.:** U.S. Department of Labor JOLTs report release.
– **April 2:** Announcement of Trump’s “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs.
Governance and Unlock Events
**Governance Votes & Discussions:**
– **Arbitrum DAO** is voting on converting 15 million ARB into stablecoins managed via a split among Karpatkey, Avantgarde, and Myso, along with a proposal to allocate 10 million ARB into on-chain strategies for yield generation. Voting ends on April 3.
– **Sky DAO** is considering increasing the Smart Burn Engine (SBE) rate following a recent proposal that substantially boosted net revenue.
**Unlock Events:**
– **April 1:** Sui (SUI) will unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply valued at $143.15 million.
– **April 1:** ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock 6.05% of its circulating supply valued at $12.85 million.
– **April 2:** Ethena (ENA) will unlock 0.77% of its circulating supply valued at $14.07 million.
– **April 3:** Wormhole (W) will unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply valued at $112.67 million.
– **April 9:** Movement (MOVE) will unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply valued at $20.23 million.
**Token Listings:**
– **April 1:** Bybit will delist CEL, MXM, ZEND, CTT, BONUS, LGX, PLT.
Upcoming Conferences
– **CoinDesk’s Consensus:** May 14-16 in Toronto. Use code DAYBOOK for a 15% discount.
– **April 2-3:** Southeast Asia Blockchain Week 2025 Main Conference in Bangkok.
– **April 2-5:** ETH Bucharest Conference & Hackathon in Romania.
– **April 3-6:** BitBlockBoom in Dallas.
– **April 6-9:** Hong Kong Web3 Festival.
– **April 8-10:** Paris Blockchain Week.
– **April 10:** Bitcoin Educators Unconference in Nashville.
– **April 15-16:** BUIDL Asia 2025 in Seoul.
Recent Developments in Security and Fraud
A hacker involved in the February multimillion-dollar exploit of the zkLend DeFi protocol claimed they accidentally sent the stolen funds to a phishing site masquerading as the mixing service Tornado Cash. This incident resulted in the loss of 2,930 ETH. The hacker later sent a message to zkLend apologizing for the chaos caused and urged the protocol to redirect recovery efforts towards the phishing site’s operators.
Despite this, market observers remain skeptical, suggesting the phishing site might have been a ruse to deflect scrutiny from the hacker’s known wallets. zkLend has since requested the hacker to return any remaining stolen funds and is actively seeking recovery solutions through a newly launched “Recovery Portal” and collaborations with security teams and authorities.
Market Overview and Technical Analysis
In the derivatives market, open interest in futures linked to coins such as TON, TRX, HYPE, SHIB, and XMR has risen, while other major coins experienced a drop in open bets. Perpetual funding rates for BTC, ETH, and most other leading cryptocurrencies remain below an annualized 5%, indicating a cautiously bullish sentiment.
The technical analysis of Bitcoin shows that it has surpassed the yellow trendline, confirming an inverse head-and-shoulders breakout, suggesting a favorable upward trajectory. The 24-hour simple moving average is trending upward, indicating renewed momentum. Potential price targets could reach the descending (white) trendline resistance, currently positioned at $87,200.
Current Market Statistics
– **BTC Price:** Up 2.19% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $84,236.71 (24 hrs: +2.47%).
– **ETH Price:** Up 3.34% at $1,880.62 (24 hrs: +3.34%).
– **CoinDesk 20 Index:** Up 3.16% at 2,579.16 (24 hrs: +5.15%).
– **Gold Price:** Up 1.18% at $3,159.80/oz.
– **Silver Price:** Up 0.99% at $34.80/oz.
Summary of Bitcoin Statistics
– **BTC Dominance:** 62.18 (-0.21%).
– **Ethereum to Bitcoin Ratio:** 0.02236 (1.31%).
– **Hashrate (7-day moving average):** 835.3 EH/s.
– **CME Futures Open Interest:** 135,210 BTC.
The crypto landscape continues to evolve rapidly, with significant developments affecting both traditional and digital assets. Investors should remain vigilant and informed as new information unfolds.
