The Final Quarter of 2024: A Turning Point for Crypto
As the year draws to a close, significant developments in the cryptocurrency sector are poised to be reflected in the upcoming financial results of Robinhood (HOOD). Analysts are eagerly anticipating how the increased user engagement during this pivotal period will influence the trading app’s revenue, particularly in the wake of the recent political landscape shifts following Donald Trump’s election.
Projected Revenue Surge for Robinhood
According to FactSet, Robinhood’s cryptocurrency trading revenue is expected to skyrocket by an astonishing 440% in the fourth quarter, reaching approximately $345.5 million. This anticipated surge is largely attributed to a notable uptick in trading activity among users, which has been fueled by a more optimistic macroeconomic environment for both stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Over the past year, Robinhood’s shares have seen a remarkable growth of 350%, with a 37% increase noted in just the first six weeks of 2025. This resurgence in retail trading activity signals a robust recovery for the platform as traders flock back in droves.
Overall Financial Performance
In terms of overall financial health, Robinhood is projected to report total revenue of around $934.9 million for the fourth quarter, a substantial increase from the $660.5 million recorded in the previous quarter. Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise to $0.41, compared to $0.18 in the prior period. These figures reflect a positive trend for the company, buoyed by the increased interest in cryptocurrency trading.
Correlation Between Robinhood and Coinbase Data
Analysts often leverage Robinhood’s trading data to gauge the performance of Coinbase (COIN), as the two platforms have historically demonstrated a correlation in trading volumes. Benjamin Buddish, an analyst at Barclays, noted that Robinhood experienced an impressive overall growth in crypto volumes, with total reported volumes reaching approximately $69 billion by December 27. This figure represents a staggering five-fold increase quarter-over-quarter and a six-fold increase year-over-year.
Implications for Coinbase’s Retail Volume
In light of these developments, Buddish anticipates that Coinbase’s retail trading volume will exceed $108 billion, even when applying a conservative estimate for those retail volumes. This projection indicates a strong performance for Coinbase in the current market environment.
Anticipated Earnings for Coinbase
Coinbase is set to release its fourth-quarter earnings report shortly, with expectations of reporting one of its most robust quarters to date. Analysts estimate that Coinbase could achieve revenue of $1.8 billion, with earnings per share projected at $1.99, significantly up from $0.41 in the previous quarter.
Market Reactions and Future Outlook
The performance of Robinhood is likely to have a direct impact on Coinbase’s stock, as investors anticipate a similarly positive report from the cryptocurrency exchange. Over the past year, Coinbase’s shares have appreciated by 90%, currently trading at $269.88, while Robinhood boasts a remarkable 370% increase, trading at $54.33 at the time of this writing.
In summary, as Robinhood gears up for its fourth-quarter earnings announcement, the results could provide critical insights into the broader cryptocurrency market and set the stage for Coinbase’s upcoming performance evaluation.
