The fifth Bitcoin halving is projected for mid‑April 2028, when block 1,050,000 is mined. Because an average Bitcoin block is confirmed roughly every 10 minutes, the exact day can drift by a few days, but blockchain data suggests a target window of April 16 to April 20, 2028.

At that block:

• The block subsidy will fall from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC.

• The issuance rate will drop from about 450 BTC to 225 BTC per day, assuming 144 blocks daily.

• Annualized supply inflation will decline from roughly 0.79% to 0.39% of the circulating supply.

Miners will earn fewer new coins, which historically tightens sell‑side pressure and can shift market sentiment. For investors, the halving timeline matters for both portfolio planning and long‑term capital‑gains strategy.

Why Bitcoin undergoes halvings

Bitcoin’s code reduces the block reward every 210,000 blocks to control supply. The design:

1. Keeps total supply capped at 21,000,000 BTC.

2. Creates a predictable issuance curve that mimics commodity scarcity.

3. Aligns miner incentives with long‑term network value rather than perpetual inflation.

Learn how to reduce your crypto taxes.

How a halving works on‑chain

• Block subsidy adjustment: At the preset block height, the client software automatically halves the reward field from the previous subsidy.

• Difficulty and fees: Network difficulty retargets every 2,016 blocks, so hash‑rate changes after a halving can shift block times until the next adjustment. Miner revenue increasingly relies on transaction fees as subsidies shrink.

• No fork required: Because the halving is hard‑coded, all consensus‑following nodes adopt the new reward without a manual upgrade.

Market effects to watch

• Miner margins: Higher‑cost miners may shut equipment off if BTC price does not compensate for the lower subsidy, reducing hash rate in the short term.

• Supply overhang: Daily sell pressure halves, which historically tightens the exchange float over months.

• Derivatives pricing: Futures curves often reflect halving expectations well ahead of the event, so spot markets may move earlier than casual observers expect.

Tax considerations

Holding BTC for at least 12 months qualifies profits for federal long‑term capital‑gains brackets of 0%, 15%, or 20% (plus a 3.8% NIIT applies above $200k/$250k AGI thresholds for individuals/married filers). Cashing out inside a year is taxed at ordinary income rates that can reach 37%. State taxes may also apply.

When reporting crypto taxes, accurate lot selection is essential:

• FIFO (first in, first out) realizes the oldest, typically cheapest coins first and can increase gains.

• HIFO (highest in, first out) or TokenTax’s Minimization method can reduce near‑term tax by selling the highest‑cost coins first.

• Mining income is ordinary income at the fair‑market value on the day mined, then has its own cost basis for future gains or losses.

Learn more about crypto accounting methods.

Past halving schedule and block rewards